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让更多人获得能源




让更多人获得能源

文| 国际能源署 (IEA)  翻译| 周佳



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为在撒哈拉以南非洲地区实现联合国“人人享有可持续能源”倡议目标,所有外国利益相关者应联合起来,增加发电能力和电网基础设施

● 能源获取与能源转型

电力增长主要障碍:缺乏基础设施

中国贡献


非洲的能源转型与能源获取问题密切相关。可持续性获取能源在发展中地区,特别是非洲国家之间进展情况并不均衡。能源是发展的基础。尽管非洲国内生产总值不断增长,但迅速增长的非洲人口中约有一半(52%)仍无法获得电力供应。撒哈拉以南非洲人口占世界人口的14%,但能源需求仅占全球的5%。在该地区,62%的能源需求由生物质能满足。

能源获取与能源转型
经济发展和生活条件受到电力供应不足以及输配电网薄弱等因素的强烈影响。撒哈拉以南非洲电力部门需要更多的资金、技术和能力建设,需要大量的投资来支持电力部门的发展,以最终实现经济突破。2018年,世界银行和国际能源署制定的《2018年全球可持续能源跟踪框架》表明,电力供应和清洁炊事的普及进展小于能源结构中可再生能源的发展进度。到2030年,为实现联合国“人人享有可持续能源倡议”所有可持续发展能源目标,还需要做出重大努力:普遍获得电力和清洁炊事、能源效率提高一倍、可再生能源在能源结构中的份额翻倍。国际能源署的《2019年世界能源展望》将特别关注非洲,重点研究能源的获取和开发。

2017年,全球电气化率达到87%,这意味着仍有近10亿人无法获得电力,其中非洲就有6亿多人。撒哈拉以南非洲的电气化进展十分缓慢。此外,近期相关工作开展十分不平衡,自2011年以来,所取得的进展中约有60%主要集中在四个国家(肯尼亚、埃塞俄比亚、坦桑尼亚和尼日利亚)。2017年清洁炊事的普及率达到64%,相比略有增加。使用生物质能进行烹饪的人数首次呈下降趋势,约24亿人(国际能源署《世界能源展望2018》)。

尽管自2010年以来,能源结构中可再生能源的份额加速增长,但到2030年,增长速度仍然不足以实现翻倍的目标。要想实现全球,尤其是非洲地区,向清洁能源的平稳过渡,以确保所有人拥有可持续的未来,还需要加快行动。

电力增长主要障碍:缺乏基础设施
国际能源署的预测显示,2017年至2040年间,非洲的电力需求将增加约150%:工业领域需求几乎增加一倍,而住宅方面的需求将增加三倍。缺乏基础设施是电力供应增长的主要障碍。该地区拥有丰富的能源资源,但石油、天然气和煤炭目前只得到了部分开采,可再生能源具有充足的发展空间。尽管非洲大陆采取了改革措施,但大多数努力都集中在出口能源资源的开发上。

2010年至2017年期间,石油和天然气行业全球发现资源中近15%位于非洲,在几内亚湾和东非地区尤为集中。大多数煤炭储量位于非洲南部。整个非洲大陆还拥有巨大的太阳能潜力。中非和东非拥有大部分水电潜力。风能主要在非洲之角和非洲大陆的南部。2017年,可再生能源占电力容量增长的四分之一。

到2040年,电力供应中可再生能源的增加将减少化石燃料的份额。电力结构中煤炭和石油的比例分别下降至12%和5%(2017年为31%和11%)。天然气发电量预计将增加一倍以上,但其总体份额将减少。发电量的变化取决于非洲大陆的次区域;而他们的发展又取决于当地的可用资源。区域层面和跨境电力交换的有效发展有助于优化电力系统运营。

联合国气候变化公约第21次缔约方会议之后,经济合作与发展组织(OECD)国家或OECD国家的大型商业银行为燃煤电厂提供的资金大幅减少,目标是限制发展效率极低的电厂。国际能源署建议,应充分考虑各国的技术和运营限制,尽可能以最高效率建造工厂。虽然应鼓励建立更清洁的工厂,但应根据当地条件,考虑为最不发达国家提供次临界技术。

中国贡献
非洲能源部门的增长目前主要依赖发展援助和国际捐助。可探索捐助者之间的互补性,以提高援助的有效性。中国企业积极参与电力部门产能扩张。它们主要作为承包商(销售建筑服务和设备)运营,而东道国负责投资。2016年,国际能源署发现,作为主要承包商的中国公司在2010——2015年负责了撒哈拉以南非洲新增产能的30%。在撒哈拉以南非洲,与中国公司签订合同的绿地电力项目非常普遍:在2010——2020年间,该报告的范围内已包括200多个项目。2010年至2020年,在撒哈拉以南非洲,中国承包商已经建造或将承包建设17吉瓦的发电容量,相当于撒哈拉以南非洲现有装机容量的10%,或芬兰的总装机容量[国际能源署(2016)《促进撒哈拉以南非洲电力发展:中国的参与》]。

中国公司在国外享有比较优势的同时,有几个因素使得撒哈拉以南非洲的中国电力项目对非洲政府具有吸引力。中国企业受到政策性银行贷款的强力支持,因而建设发电厂成本往往较低。中国在非洲的电力相关投资建设涉及大多数主要能源类型和各种规模的项目,而来自其他国家的融资来源并不热衷于为大型水电站大坝或燃煤发电厂提供资金。

在增加发电和电网容量,支持经济发展的电力供应的同时,项目融资仍然具有挑战性,并且趋向于多样化,并逐步从公共贷款转向更多的股权融资。然而,在缺乏可靠的电力承购商和充分、稳定的地方监管的情况下,后者仍然具有挑战性。电力项目的成功取决于非洲政府谈判、实施和维护这些项目的能力。当地技术人员的技术培训对于保持工厂的效率和性能,以及帮助各国建立强大的维护服务行业,确保工厂可持续性和支持更广泛的工业发展至关重要。

撒哈拉以南非洲电力部门需要从经验丰富的制造商处获取更多的能力建设、资本资金和技术支持。2030年前,为在撒哈拉以南非洲地区实现联合国“人人享有可持续能源”倡议目标,实现能源获取和经济增长,所有外国利益相关者应联合起来,增加发电能力和电网基础设施。中国和其他公司应更加重视输配电网,因为这将成为扩大电力供应,实现更高水平经济增长的关键制约因素。国际能源署在其“开放”政策下,将继续支持非洲能源获取和清洁能源技术发展。

⬆南部非洲莱索托的水电站(CFP)


英文版




 Achieving energy access in Africa

By International Energy Agency


Energy transition in Africa is deeply correlated with energy access issues. Sustainable access to energy has achieved unequal progress among developing regions, especially among African countries. Energy is fundamental for development. Despite GDP growth in Africa, around half (52%) of the African population, which is growing rapidly, does not have access to electricity. sub-Saharan Africa represents 14% of world population, but only 5% of global energy demand. Within the region, 62% of energy demand is supplied by biomass.

Energy access and energy transition
Economic development and living conditions are strongly affected by the lack of electricity supply, as well as the weakness of power transmission and distribution grids. The sub-Saharan Africa power sector needs greater access to capital, technologies and capacity building. Significant investments are needed to support power sector development, and ultimately enable economic breakthroughs. The 2018 Global Tracking Framework 2018 – Progress Toward Sustainable Energy, produced by The World Bank and the IEA, shows that progress towards universal electricity access and access to clean cooking facilities are smaller than the development of renewable sources in the energy mix. Significant efforts are needed to achieve the sustainable energy for all objectives by 2030(UNSE4All): universal electricity access and access to clean cooking, doubling of progress in energy efficiency, and doubling of the renewables share in the energy mix. The IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2019 will include a special focus on Africa, which will examine in detail energy access and development.

In 2017, global electrification rate reached 87%, which means less than 1 billion people do not yet have access to electricity, including more than 600 million in Africa. Progress with electrification has been slower in sub-Saharan Africa. Furthermore, recent efforts have been uneven, with around 60% of the progress seen since 2011 concentrated in just four countries (Kenya, Ethiopia, Tanzania and Nigeria). Access to clean cooking reached 64% in 2017, a slight increase. The number of people using biomass for cooking is gradually declining for the first time, reaching 2.4 billion(IEA (2018), World Energy Outlook, Paris).

Despite the acceleration in the increase of the share of renewables in the energy mix since 2010, progress is still not fast enough to achieve a doubling by 2030. Actions need to be accelerated to reach sustainable energy for all globally, and notably in Africa, to achieve a smooth transition towards clean energy in order to ensure a sustainable future for all.

Prospects for renewable sources development
IEA projections show that Africa’s electricity demand will increase by around 150% between 2017 and 2040: industrial demand almost doubles, while demand from the residential sector triples. The lack of infrastructure is a key obstacle to growth in electricity supply. The region has abundant energy resources, however, partially exploited as far as oil, gas and coal are concerned, and the renewables provide ample scope for development. Despite reforms adopted on the continent, most efforts have focused on the development of energy resources for export.

Between 2010 and 2017, almost 15% of resources global discoveries in the oil and gas sector were located in Africa, notable in the Gulf of Guinea and in East Africa. Most coal reserves are located in Southern Africa. The entire African continent also has large solar potential. Central and East Africa include most of the hydro potential; and the wind potential is mostly located in the Horn of Africa and the southern part of the continent. In 2017, renewable sources represented one quarter of electricity capacity growth.

By 2040, the increase of renewable sources in electricity supply will reduce the share of fossil fuels. The share of coal and oil in the electricity mix decrease to 12% and 5% respectively (31% and 11% in 2017). Electricity production from gas is expected to more than double but its overall share decreases to 2040. The evolution of generation capacity varies depending on the continent’s sub-regions; their development is dependent upon locally available resources. The regional dimension and the efficient development of cross-border power exchanges contribute to optimising electricity systems operations.

The financing of coal-fired power plants by OECD countries or large commercial banks from OECD countries has been drastically reduced following COP21 and the objective to limit the development of least efficient plants. The IEA recommends building plants at the highest efficiency possible while taking into account technical and operational limitations in countries. Although cleaner plants shall be encouraged, sub-critical technologies may be considered for the least-developed countries, depending on local conditions.

China’s contribution
Energy sector growth in Africa currently largely depends on development aid and international donors. Complementarities between donors can be explored to strengthen aid effectiveness. Chinese companies are active in power sector capacity expansion. They essentially operate as contractors (selling construction services and equipment) while the host country is responsible for the investment. In 2016, the IEA found out that Chinese companies operating as the main contractor were responsible for 30% of new capacity additions in sub-Saharan Africa in 2010-15. Greenfield power projects contracted to Chinese companies are widespread in sub-Saharan Africa: over the 2010-20 time period, more than 200 projects have been included in the scope of that report. Chinese contractors have built, or are contracted to build, 17 GW of generation capacity in sub-Saharan Africa from 2010 to 2020, equivalent to 10% of existing installed capacity in sub-Saharan Africa, or to Finland’s total installed capacity(IEA (2016), Boosting the Power Sector in Sub-Saharan Africa: China’s Involvement, Paris).

At the same time as Chinese companies benefit from comparative advantages outside of China, several factors make Chinese power projects in sub-Saharan Africa attractive to African governments. Costs of power plants built by Chinese companies tend to be lower, strongly supported by Chinese loans issued by policy banks. Chinese engagement in Africa in power covers most primary sources, and all sizes of projects, while sources of financing from other countries are not keen to finance large hydropower dams or coal-fired power plants.

While increasing generation and grid capacities, and supporting electricity access for economic development, project financing remains challenging and is tending to diversify and move progressively away from public lending towards more equity financing. However, the latter remains challenging in the absence of reliable power off-takers and adequate, stable local regulation. The success of power projects depends on the ability of African governments to negotiate, implement and maintain them. Technical training of local technicians is essential to maintain efficiency and performance of plants as well as to help countries build a strong service industry for maintenance, ensuring plant sustainability and supporting broader industrial development.

The sub-Saharan Africa power sector needs greater access to capacity building, capital funds and technologies from experienced manufacturers. To achieve SE4ALL objectives in sub-Saharan Africa by 2030, enabling energy access and economic growth, all foreign stakeholders should join forces to increase power generation capacities and grid infrastructure. Greater emphasis from Chinese and other companies should be placed on T&D grids, as this will be the critical constraint to expanding access to power and generating higher levels of economic growth. Under its “open doors” policy, the IEA will continue to support expanded energy access and clean energy technology development in Africa.

⬆Clanwilliam Dam in the Olifants River, Clanwilliam, Western Cape, South Africa, Africa(CFP)


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