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彼得·卡格万加:非洲国家的天然帮手


金砖国家将成为非洲国家的天然帮手,助其尽快实现缩短与发达国家差距的目标


文I 彼得·卡格万加  肯尼亚非洲政策研究所所长



● 金砖国家与非洲

● 中国的作用

● 金砖国家的未来


2017年9月3日到5日,金砖国家第九次领导人峰会在中国东南沿海城市厦门举行,峰会旨在寻求加强和加速新兴市场发展路径。该组织成员国有巴西、俄罗斯、印度、中国以及2010年开始加入的南非,每个成员国国名的第一个字母正好组成了BRICS一词。这几个国家都是全球结构治理中的新兴大国。今年,中国还在“金砖+”倡议下邀请了几内亚和埃及这两个非洲国家以及塔吉克斯坦、墨西哥和泰国作为主宾国出席了这次峰会。

作为世界新兴市场的重要代表,金砖国家希望能够通过合作的方式继续加速新兴市场的发展,并以此来制衡与他们利益完全不一致的八国集团和二十国集团对世界局势的掌控。金砖国家经济体面临几乎相同的国内和社会经济挑战,因此他们期待在推动彼此间贸易发展并相互产生影响,毕竟金砖国家人口总计占世界人口的近一半。

不过,这些崛起中的新兴国家没有一个急于站出来宣称自己要取代美国充当世界领袖。这或许是因为他们仍忙于发展自己国家的经济,而不想寻求世界霸权,对与自己理念不一致的国家强行施加影响,同时还需为全球领导地位付上高额的财务代价。中国是这方面最好的例证。长期以来它一直致力于自身的发展,经过四十年的顽强拼搏和不懈努力,成为世界上发展最快、变化最大的国家。

这种的做法使中国实现奇迹般的崛起,以前所未有的速度成为了世界第二大经济体,国民生产总值超过12万亿美元。中国的快速发展得益于其“世界工厂”或者说全球主要制造商的地位和以大力发展基础设施建设为主导的经济策略。

 

 金砖国家与非洲

但是,也有一些问题需要金砖国家跨越这一组织的范围去应对和解决,这样才能确保每个成员国都能实现他们集体制定的目标,比如消除腐败之外的经济、社会和政治不平等、改善医疗和教育状况、保障人权等。在非洲,这些问题都现实存在,而大家对金砖国家都持非常积极的态度,并且认为它具有领导力,可以成为该地区大多数国家追随和效仿的目标。他们还认为金砖国家会为他们在世界舞台上发挥影响力给予必然的保护和支持,从而使他们能在全球经济谈判中得到一些更有利的条件。

“金砖+”倡议是加强金砖国家领导力和扩大其影响的重要一步,这将使它能在未来的地缘政治,特别是发展中国家的地缘政治中发挥更重要作用。将南非吸纳为金砖国家成员国以及这次在“金砖+”倡议下邀请几内亚和埃及出席峰会都受到北部非洲国家和撒哈拉沙漠以南非洲国家的欢迎。非洲国家现在应当以此为契机,按照非洲联盟2063议程,制定一个共同方针,将其自身的发展愿景与金砖国家的计划结合在一起,抓住机遇,密切合作,实现利益最大化。

机遇包括通过互惠互利的优先贸易伙伴协议,开发金砖国家和发展中国家的巨大的市场潜力。同时,非洲国家能为金砖国家提供机会,使他们进入全新的、尚未开发的市场;同时,发展中国家也会较容易地进入金砖国家市场,进而扩展到那些更发达的经济体。另一个重要的方面是通过利用金砖国家已经实践证明的先进技术,弥补非洲国家在技术领域的差距,同时加强在硬件和软件方面的基础设施建设。

 

 中国的作用

当前的世界格局已经发生了根本性的变化,未来我们不可避免地要面对两个世界大国,即美国和中国。很显然,中国已经跻身为世界上最重要的国家。因此,作为金砖国家的成员国,中国的作用远远大于所有其他新兴国家加在一起的作用,而且预计未来它会在制定金砖国家的议程时拥有更多的话语权。

因此中国可以发挥极其关键的作用,通过协调金砖组织集体应对和解决全球重大事务,比如气候变化、减贫、自由贸易和构建可持续并且有效的国内治理模式,引领金砖国家越来越向发达国家所宣称的目标靠近。不过,更重要的是,中国在过去短短几十年时间里设法使五亿多人民摆脱了贫困,所以它有能力为其他发展中国家提供切实可行的模式。这样当他们也遇到既要减贫又要保护环境的类似挑战时,就有了可以借鉴和效仿的目标。

在这方面,中国的确能够起到这样的作用,因为它非常希望金砖国家可以成为全球领导力的驱动者,特别是在发展中国家范围内。习近平主席提出的“一带一路”倡议,以及他今年年初在瑞士达沃斯世界贸易论坛上所做的坚决支持全球化的演讲,都与金砖国家强调的团结与合作的伙伴关系相吻合,这应当成为发展中国家仿照的模式。此外,由于金砖国家成员国的经济发展和增长速度都很快,现在大多数新兴国家都在试图模仿他们的模式,这也为中国发挥其领导作用提供了极好的机遇。

 

 金砖国家的未来

展望未来,比如金砖银行,对于发展中国家来说极具吸引力,因为它能帮助他们实现可持续发展的目标。金砖国家还应当在推动建立司法体制、保护人权、倡导公平贸易以及其它西方世界设立的合理规范和标准方面发挥主导作用。同样重要的是,金砖组织必须尽力实现其经常呼吁的国际治理民主化和在国际政治中体现更多平等的愿望。这方面的努力需要中国发挥带头作用,同时与其他几个成员国紧密合作,因为金砖国家希望采取的改革和发展与中国提倡的稳定渐进的做法是一致的。

因此,中国作为最具影响力的国家将带领金砖组织其他成员国朝这一方向努力,并且通过其提倡的“共赢”的全球化模式,推动所有新兴国家的崛起,进而实现共同发展的目标。在这方面,作为南南合作的全球影响力平台,金砖国家首脑会议标志着新兴市场国家的领导力水平又迈上了一个新台阶,必将推动国际秩序变得更加公平合理。

从非洲的角度看,如果想实现全球共同繁荣的愿望,那么坚定果断地响应金砖国家,特别是中国的倡议,是一个重大挑战和机遇。而“金砖+”倡议则沿着这一正确轨道又向前迈了一步,可以让崛起中的非洲国家有机会学习和了解其他新兴国家采取怎样的策略实现社会和经济飞速发展,从而带来更多的希望。

按照印度总理纳伦德拉·莫迪的观点,金砖国家必须在探讨建立和平、平衡和稳定的世界时发出统一和明确的声音。他认为,“我们必须充分利用彼此的优势、知识、技能和资源。”这对非洲国家来说尤其如此,而南非作为金砖国家的成员国肩负着更重要的使命,因为它可以在世界主要的新兴经济体领导人中发声。爱尔兰前总统、联合国人权事务高级专员玛丽·鲁宾逊认为,将南非吸纳进金砖国家对其他非洲国家来说显然是很有必要的,因为这样它就可以参与新的权力分配。而邀请另两个非洲国家作为主宾国参加这次峰会则更意味着金砖国家将成为非洲国家的天然帮手,助其尽快实现缩短与发达国家差距的目标。(编辑:周洋)



BRICS Plus Initiative Holds Much Promise for Africa’s Emerging Markets


By Prof. Peter Kagwanja,Chief Executive of the Africa Policy Institute



● BRICSand Africa

● China’sRole

● TheFuture of BRICS


The 9thBRICS leaders’ summit recently heldon September 3-5 2017 in Xiamen, southeast China sought to strengthen andaccelerate growth in emerging markets. The countries represented in thisorganization were Brazil, Russia, India, China, and since 2010 South Africa,respectively hence the acronym BRICS denoting each of the constituent members.These countries constitute the emerging powers in global governance. This year,China invited two African countries, Guinen and Egypt, alongside Tajikistan, Mexicoand Thailand, as guest countries under the umbrella of the BRICS Plusinitiative.

As the primary representative of the world’sleading emerging markets, BRICS is meant to accelerate growth in the emergingmarkets in tandem with and as a counter balance to the domination of the richG8 and G20 who have profoundly unrelated interests. The BRICS economies sharecommon domestic and socio-economic challenges. They are also looking forprospective success and reciprocal influence in boosting trade between theirdeveloping economies which constitute nearly half of the world's population.

None of the rising powers has however beenin a rush to assert themselves by usurping the role of the United States as theglobal leader. This is perhaps because they remain more pre-occupied withgrowing their economies rather than seeking hegemony with its conflictinginfluences and consequential high financial costs that come along with globalleadership status. This dominant reasoning is informed by the case of theleading partners, China, which has traditionally taken a long patient view ofdevelopment and has over the last four decades, through unrelenting fortitudeand perseverance, become a fast-paced country undergoing rapid change.

This approach has catapulted China’smeteoric rise and unprecedented advance to become the world’s second largesteconomy today at a GDP of over $12 trillion. This growth powered by itsrenowned position as the “world’s factory” or principal global manufacturer andleader in infrastructure development leading.

 

  BRICSand Africa

There are however issues that must be addressedindependent of the BRICS collective crusade in order for the individualcountries to collectively accomplish their major goals as a group in combatingeconomic, social and political inequality in addition to corruption,improvements in health care and education, and human rights, to name but a few.In Africa where these issues are particularly pertinent, BRICS is viewedpositively and is seen as a providing leadership that can be emulated inmeeting the primary goals of most countries in the region. They envision BRICSas the natural cover for them to exert their influence in the global arena forthe negotiate purpose of negotiating better terms for themselves in the worldeconomic stage.

The BRICS Plus initiative is a significantstep in deepening BRICS leadership and outreach as it endeavors to play asignificant role in shaping future geopolitics particularly in the developingworld. The inclusion of South Africa in the main block and the more recentinvitation of Guinen and Egypt to be incubated under this initiative hasfurther endeared the grouping to both Northern and Subsaharan Africa. Africancountries should now take the cue and forge a common approach, based on theAfrican Union’s Agenda 2063, to align its aspirations to the BRICS programme witha view of closely cooperating with the body to exploit opportunities thosecountries may represent.

These opportunities include unlocking thepotential of the huge markets that BRICS countries and developing countriescollectively represent through mutually beneficial preferred trade partneragreements. In so doing, African countries would be provide BRICS with theopportunity to diversify into new unexploited frontier markets while developingcountries would gain from easier access to the BRICS marketplace and byextension to the more developed economies. Another important area is bridgingthe technological divide and deepening both hard and soft infrastructure usingthe tested and enhanced know-how of BRICS countries.

 

  China’sRole

There has been a fundamental shift inglobal significance whereby in future we will inevitably only have two dominantpowers, namely: the United States and China. It is therefore it is manifestlyapparent that China has ascended to perhaps the most significant global playeron the world stage straddling both the developed and developing world.Furthermore, as a member of BRICS, China dwarfs all the other combined emergingpowers and is hence expected to play a larger role in shaping the BRIC’s agendathat is commensurate with its elevated status.

China can thus play a pivotal role insteering BRICS to move closer to the professed goals of the developed world bycoordinating how the group collectively tackles key global issues such asclimate change, poverty reduction, free trade and building sustainable andeffective domestic models that may be emulated by other developing countries.Of more significance however, is the ability of China, which has managed tolift over half a billion of its own people out of poverty in its recenthistory, to provide a workable model of other developing countries that facesimilar challenges in lifting large populations of poor while at the same timeprotecting their environments.

In this context China can play this rolebecause of the seriousness in takes BRICS as a driver of global leadershipparticularly in the developing world. President Xi Jinping’s One Belt andRoad  (OBOR) pet project combined withhis captivating speech in support of globalization at the World Trade Forum inDavos, Switzerland earlier this year are all aligned towards enhancingpartnerships of unity and cooperation within BRICS as a global model thatshould emulated by developing countries. Consequently, China now has theopportunity to provide leadership as most emerging countries seek to emulatethe BRICS model particularly the aspect of fast-paced, fast growing economicgrowth that is characteristic of members of this group.

 

  TheFuture of BRICS

Some ideas such as the mooted BRICS bankare extremely attractive to the developing countries particularly if it canhelp them in achieving sustainable development goals. BRICS should also takethe front seat in propping up institutions of jurisprudence, human rights, fairtrade, and other equitable forms of Western global setting of norms andstandards. It is also critical that it fulfils its oft repeated aspiration andcall for the democratization of international governance and for greaterequality in world politics. This endeavor should be spearheaded by Chinaworking in close collaboration with fellow member countries especially becauseBRICS preference for reform and evolution rather than revolution is wellaligned to China’s deliberately unhurried approach in asserting itself.



China as the dominating influence will wantto show that it is meeting this goal. In this respect, it can play an importantrole within BRICS of spearheading the rise of emerging powers and catalyzingthe progression of shared development through its much touted “win-win”globalization model. In this regard the BRICS Summit signifies a furtheradvance in the march towards a new level of leadership as a globallyinfluential platform for South-South cooperation among the emerging-marketbloc, thus leading to a fairer and more rational international order.

From the African perspective, this is thekey challenge and opportunity for BRICS and particularly China – to firmly anddecisively take up this responsibility if they are to meet Africa’s sanguineexpectations in terms of uniformly blending aspirations for common globalprosperity. This is why the BRICS Plus initiative holds much promise as asignificant step in the right direction, providing emerging African countrieswith an opportunity to understudy their more developed counterparts on triedout measure for fast-paced socio-economic development.

According to Indian Prime Minister,Nahendra Modi, BRICS must provide a united and clear voice in shaping apeaceful, balanced and stable world. He argues that “We must harness eachother's strengths, in knowledge, skills and resources.” This is particularlytrue for Africa whereby South Africa membership in BRICS gives it animportantly critical toehold onto leadership among the world’s top emergingeconomies. Former President of Ireland and the United Nations High Commissionerfor Human Rights, Mary Robinson considers the inclusion of South Africa aspatently important for the rest of Africa in terms of being at the forefront ofnew power sharing arrangements. The inclusion of two other African countries asBRICS understudies provides further promise that BRICS will become the naturalvehicle that African countries can use to edge even closer to achieving theirgoal of bridging the gap with their more developed global counterparts.