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南非电力愿景


能源部的愿景是到2025年实现能源结构改善,清洁能源占比30%


文I查理斯(Charles Manuel)南非驻华使馆公使衔参赞(经济)     翻译I潘心怡


概览

南非的能源政策和计划由能源部(DOE)负责制定。随着南非不断加大能源开发力度,能源部的职责是保证正确的政策组合,同时通过技术手段确保处理经济增长、不断增长的能源需求和相关的二氧化碳排放之间的关系。南非的能源政策旨在解决能源安全、能源获取、可持续性、可负担性,最终为用户提供合适的服务。

能源是实现经济增长和国家政策的必要因素。《综合能源计划》(IEP)制定了广泛的国家目标、总体规划和路线图。本文列出的计划出自IEP,但对行业未来计划的具体细节有进一步阐述。比如,《综合能源规划草案》(IRP)的依据为IEP,同时详细阐明了供电量的要求。《综合能源计划》和《综合能源规划草案》是南非能源行业的两大有力支撑。

能源行业受到以下法案的监管:

●  国家能源法案,2008(Act No. 34 of 2008)

●  石油产品法案,1977  (Act No.120 of 1977)

●  电力监管法案 , 2006(Act No.4 of 2006)

 

南非电力行业

国营企业南非电力国家公司(以下简称Eskom)主导了南非的电力生产,供应全国96.7%以上的用电量。Eskom目前的额定装机容量为44,175兆瓦。2011开始,南非独立发电厂项目进行了四轮投标,各独立电厂共提供了超过6000兆瓦的总发电量,满足了其余市场需求。2014年,21个可再生能源项目被纳入了国家电网,装机容量达到1076兆瓦。到2030年,南非所需增加的发电量超过45,600兆瓦。Eskom是南部非洲电力联盟的一部分,该联盟成员由该地区的公用事业公司组成,旨在创造统一的区域电力市场。



 

输电

目前,南非电力的传输由Eskom承担,其在全国范围内拥有的输电网总长度超过28000公里。市政配电公司的用户数和售电量约占总用户数和售电量的60%和40%。2005年到2013年4月,南非在全国范围内增加了4686公里的输电线路,输电变电所的容量增加了23775兆伏安(MVA),并投入了57亿美元进行升级。2013年4月至2014年3月,Eskom开发了811公里长的输电线路和3790兆伏安的输电变电容量。

2015/16财年,Eskom斥资8230万美元用于扩建输电网络,其中包括和Abengoa公司签订的一份2500万美元的合同,合同计划将在Lephalale的Medupi发电厂和Mokopane的Borutho变电站之间建设两条174公里长、400千伏的输电线路。

根据公共事业输电计划显示,Eskom计划在2015年至2024年间支出120亿美元用于输电基础设施建设。其中大约89%将用于扩建容量,其余部分则用于翻修、资本备件、生产设备、土地和权益,以及战略发展上。

届时,南非将拥有13396公里长的输电网,其中2019年达到5235公里,2020年至2024年达到8161公里。对输电基础设施的投资,和联通远离主要电力负荷中心的地区一起,组成了支持区域电力走廊、高效连接电力池战略中的一环。

 

配电

电力分配是电力传输的最后一步,南非的配电目前由Eskom公司和地方市政电力公司共同经营。配电部门由187 家有执照的分销商组成,几乎所有的分销商都是市政配电公司。电力用户总量的52%由这些市政配电公司负责,而余下48%的用户由Eskom提供配电。制造业消耗了约40%的电力,紧随其后的是采矿业和家庭用电,各占18%。其余大部分电力消耗发生在农业和运输部门。目前,电力销售占市政收入的25%以上,在南非最大的城市地区,该数字可达34%。

 

售电价格和管理

自2007年以来,南非的电力价格上涨了4倍。Eskom的营收要求决定了电价,在成本上升和产量下降的情况下,电价成为了一个颇具挑战性的难题。电价结构促使Eskom设立了收益目标,但由于使用柴油原料、翻修老工厂,以及维护费用的增加,致使总发电量下降。这导致了单位电价的大幅上涨,对企业和消费者都造成了影响。南非国家能源监管机构(NERSA)制定了为期5年的电价调整方案,根据2012年的最新版本,2013年到2018年南非电价每年的涨幅为8%。

 

电力来源

煤炭

南非93%的电力由燃煤发电站产生。南非是世界第五大煤炭生产国,煤炭储量为30408兆吨(占世界总量的3.68%)。在Eskom的额定装机容量中,煤电占了86%(37,755兆瓦)。南非致力于通过使用碳捕获储存(CCS)和二氧化碳排放稳定等清洁煤技术来达到煤炭的高效能利用。为此,南非已经制定了一个路线图,将于2025年投产一家商业规模的工厂。

核能

南非仅有一个核电站(Koeberg),该基站额定装机容量为 1,930兆瓦 (5%) 。该工厂的建设始于1976年,并于1985年全面投入运营。截至2010年3月31日,该工厂生产了12,806千兆瓦时电力,使用了30tpa的浓缩铀。政府已近向Koeberg提供了未来8年的合作合同,目的在于使核能在2030年占到南非基础负荷的17%。

可再生能源

南非在2011年启动了可再生能源独立发电商项目(REIPPP),到2030年可再生能源发电量将达到178亿瓦。REIPPP加上太阳能和风能能源战略技术的完成,南非将成为可再生能源项目的核心制造地,除了增加发电量,也将促进工业发展和创造就业。

 REIPPP已经吸引了920亿元人民币的投资,是南非目前为止最成功的基础设施项目,也是创造绿色经济、工业经济的最大动力之一。上述可再生能源项目采购总额为710亿元人民币,对当地的制造业和绿色经济都是一个巨大的刺激。

碳氢化合物

尽管南非邻国莫桑比克在近海探勘出了碳氢化合物,但要让南非在短期内舍弃煤炭,近地采购大量的化石燃料似乎不太可能。即便如此,南非仍有计划增加天然气产量和非常规储存的油气开采。根据美国能源情报署的数据,南非已探明的石油储量仍停滞不前,停留在1500万桶,而PetroSA石油公司估计,南非潜在的海上油气资源储量为217.5亿桶,天然气62.4万亿立方米(tcf)。

南非西海岸的石油储量为102亿桶,总储量为27.7万亿桶,据估计,南海岸的石油储量为95.5亿桶,天然气储量为25.5万亿立方米。PetroSA是南非唯一运作的石油公司,该公司的Oribi和Oryz油田每天生产的原油和凝析油不超过5000桶,其F-A和南海岸的复杂油田的开采量为390亿立方米。

在石油公司PetroSA和能源公司Sunbrid联合开发下,西海岸的Ibhubesi天然气项目将会在2019年迎来每天100标准立方米的天然气的初始开采量,天然气将通过一条400公里长的管道到达西开普敦Ankerling附近的一个收油设施。

页岩气

随着美国页岩气的繁荣,世界各地的非常规勘探和生产都有所增加,南非在这方面取得了一些成功,但也并非没有挑战。据美国能源信息管理局2013年估计,南非的页岩气技术可采储量为390万亿立方米,位于世界第八。

Karoo盆地的Whitehill被认为是南非储备最丰富的地区,蕴藏约36亿立方米的可采页岩气。2009年和2010年,PASA向四家国际能源公司颁发技术合作许可,以对Karoo盆地不同地区的潜在页岩储量进行地质调查。此后,出于担心水力压裂对蓄水层和生态系统的潜在影响,政府在进行环境影响评估时,对液压破碎法进行了为期19个月的禁令。该禁令后来被取消,政府宣布,一旦页岩法规发布,就会继续发放许可证。

 

能源服务

 不断上涨的能源价格,愈加有利的能源政策和优惠政策刺激了能源服务和能效市场的吸引力和增长。能源服务包括能源效率(EE)和嵌入式发电(EG)服务。在南非的ES市场中,有4个主要的群体:咨询服务提供商、技术供应商、能源服务公司和工程采购承包商。EE的目标行业是工业和采矿业、发电、商业和公共部门建筑、住宅部门和交通部门。工业能源效率规划正在进行中,税收激励和减少被用于鼓励可持续能源行业的发展和能源的高效使用。

嵌入式发电设备被商业价值高,其安装成本至少比安装系统的成本高出30%,这是推动南非能源效率发展一大亮点。在2016至2019年,屋顶光伏的安装、运营和维护市场预计将达到10亿元人民币。目前,在餐饮界开发太阳能热市场也在努力推行中。

 

南非能源议程

现代能源服务对人类福祉和国家经济发展至关重要。全球有13亿无电人口。95%以上的人口分布在撒哈拉以南非洲或亚洲发展中国家,84%的人口分布在农村地区。

南非的区域能源外交是南非对非洲大陆的外交政策的延伸。其更关心的是减少能源贫困和实现现代能源服务。南非采取的方式是发展和互利的,Eskom公司在非洲南部电力池(SAPP)恢复了互联互通基础设施,同时促进了SAPP内部的电力贸易。

非洲各国政府致力于实现可持续发展的能源发电和基础设施建设,以支持经济发展,和发掘非洲的工业产能,这是非洲能源议程设立的前提。具有区域影响、深化区域一体化、为区域能源池提供能力的能源项目将被优先考虑。非洲能源开发的愿景,即非洲基础设施发展规划(PIDA)中明确提出的“地平线2040”,目的是确保能源安全、普及,实现低能源成本和可持续性。

 

结论

能源部的愿景是到2025年实现能源结构改善,清洁能源占比30%。

具体战略目标如下:

制定有效的立法、政策和指导方针,鼓励对能源领域的投资;多样化能源结构,提高电力获取和连接,提供有质量和可负担的能源,促进能源安全使用,改善能源行业;

鼓励经济发展,促进能源行业就业;

促进可再生能源、能效技术的实施,促进和规范清洁发展机制(CDM)行为。(编辑:杨海霞)



South Africa’s Energy Agenda


By Charles Manuel,  Minister Counselor ( Economic ) of South African Embassy in China


Overview

The Department of Energy (DOE) is responsible for the formulation of energy policy and planning  in South Africa. It is the responsibility of the DOE to ensure that the right combination of policies an technologies are applied to ensure the linkages between economic growth, the increasing energy demand and the associated energy-related carbon dioxide emissions are managed as South Africa increases its energy generation capacity. South Africa’s energy policies are developed to address issues of energy security, energy access, sustainability, affordability and appropriate quality of service to the end users.

Energy is an enabler of economic growth and the attainment of national policy imperatives. The Integrated Energy Plan (IEP) provide for broad national objectives, overarching national plans and roadmaps. The underlying plans are informed by IEP but will go further in providing detail regarding the sector plan, e.g, the Integrated Resources Plan (IRP) is informed by the IEP and will elaborate on the electricity supply industry capacity requirements. The Energy sector is underpinned by Integrated Energy Plan and the Integrated Resources Plan.

The energy sector is regulated by the following acts:

●  The National Energy Act, 2008 (Act No. 34 of 2008)

●  The Petroleum Products Act, 1977  (Act No.120 of 1977)

●  The Electricity Regulation Act , 2006 (Act No.4 of 2006)

South African Electricity Industry

Electricity generation dominated by state-owned power company Eskom, which currently produces over 96.7% of the power used in the country. Eskom has a current nominal installed capacity of 44,175MW. The remainder coming from various IPPs that produce more than 6000 MW overall as a result of four bid rounds since 2011. In 2014, 21 IPP renewable energy projects with a combined installed capacity of 1076 MW were brought onto the national grid. South Africa needs over 45,600 MW new generation capacity by 2030. Eskom is part of Southern African Power Pool, a group of utilities in the region aiming to create a common market for electricity in the region.

Electricity Production in South Africa

Coal fired     92.6%

Nuclear power    5.7%

Pumped     1.2%

Hydro    0.5%

Gas turbine     0.1%



Transmission

Currently, the transmission of electricity in South Africa is undertaken by Eskom. The company has over 28,000km of transmission lines  spanning the entire country. Municipalities account for 40% of the total electricity sales and 60% of the customer base.

Between 2005 and April 2013 South Africa expanded transmission lines nationwide by 4686 km, increased transmission substation capacity by 23,775 mega-volt amperes (MVA) and made capital upgrades of $5.7bn. From April 2013 to March 2014, Eskom, commissioned 811 km of transmission power lines and 3790 MVA of transmission substation capacity. For the 2015/16 financial year, Eskom has allocated $82.3m for transmission spending, including a significant $25m contract to Abengoa for the building of two 174-km-long, 400-KV transmission lines from the Medupi station in Lephalale to the Borutho substation in Mokopane.

Eskom has planned $12bn of spending on transmission infrastructure from 2015 to 2024, according to the utility’s transmission development plan. Around 89% of this will be allocated to capacity expansion, with the rest divided between refurbishment, capital spares, production equipment, lands and rights, and strategy. A total of 13,396 km of transmission lines will come on-stream in that time, with 5235 km by 2019 and 8161 km from 2020 to 2024. Investment in transmission infrastructure, as well as providing connectivity in areas far away from major load centres, forms part of a strategy to support regional power corridors, connecting generation pools to one another more efficiently.

Distribution

Electricity distribution is the final stage in the delivery of electricity to end users, currently undertaken by Eskom, together with local municipalities.

The electricity distribution sector comprises 187 licensed distributors, almost all of whom are local municipalities. These municipalities serve 52% of customers, with Eskom distribution directly serving the remaining 48%. The manufacturing sector consumes around 40% of the electricity distributed, with mining and domestic usage following thereafter at 18% each. The bulk of the remainder is accounted for by the power requirements of the agricultural and transport sectors.

At present, electricity sales make up over 25% of municipality revenue and can reach up to 34% in the largest urban areas.

Tariffs & Management

Electricity prices in South Africa have increased four-fold since 2007. Eskom’s revenue requirements dictate the tariff, which has been a challenging deficiency at a time of rising costs and decreasing output. The tariff structure sets a revenue target for Eskom, but as costs for production due to the use of diesel for feedstock, refurbishment of aging plants, and maintenance have increased, overall electricity output has fallen. This has caused the per unit price of electricity to rise significantly, impacting both business and consumers.

The National Energy Regulator of South Africa (NERSA) institutes five-year tariff arrangements, with the latest implemented in 2012 and allotting an 8% increase every year from 2013 to 2018.

Sources Of Power

Coal

Ninety three percent (93%) of power in South Africa is generated from coal fired power stations. South Africa is the 5th largest coal producing country in the world with coal reserves of 30,408mt (3.68% of world total). Coal accounts for 86% of Eskom’s nominal current capacity (37,755MW).

South Africa is committed to the management of efficient use of its coal through the employment of Clean Coal Technologies such as Carbon Capture Storage (CCS) and the stabilization of CO2 emissions. To this end South Africa has developed a roadmap that will lead to the commissioning of a commercial scale plant in 2025.  

Nuclear

South Africa only has one nuclear power station (Koeberg), a base-load station with a nominal installed capacity of 1,930MW (5%). Construction for the plant began in 1976 and full operation in 1985. The plant produced 12,806 GWh electricity in year ended 31 March 2010 and uses 30tpa of enriched uranium. Government authorized contracts in place to supply Koeberg for the next 8 years. It is intended that nuclear will comprise 17% of South Africa’s base load energy mix by 2030.

Renewable Energy

The Renewable Energy Independent Power Producers Programme (REIPPP) to procure 17.8 GW of renewable generation capacity by 2030 was launched in 2011. The REIPPP, combined with the completion of the technical work for solar and wind energy manufacturing strategies, has provided significant opportunity to South Africa to become a major manufacturer of componentry for renewable energy projects which will not only put electricity on the grid, but will also support industrialization and job creation.

The REIPPP has attracted Rmb 92 billion in investment and is by far the most successful infrastructure program delivered in SA and is one of the largest drivers of creating a green, industrialised economy. The combined procurement spend of Rmb 71 billion has been a substantial stimulus for local manufacturing and the green economy.

Hydrocarbons

Despite recent offshore discoveries in neighbouring Mozambique, locally sourcing significant amounts of fossil fuels other than coal seems unlikely in the short term. Even so, there remain plans to increase output from gas and unconventional deposits. South Africa’s proven oil reserves have remained fairly stagnant and stand at 15m barrels, according to the US Energy Information Administration, while PetroSA has estimated prospective offshore oil and gas resources at 21.75bn barrels and 62.4trn cu feet (tcf).

South Africa’s west coast accounts for 10.2bn barrels and 27.7 tcf of the total, while the south coast was estimated to hold 9.55bn barrels of oil and 25.5 tcf of gas, respectively. PetroSA is the only operational player, producing less than 5000 barrels per day of crude oil and lease condensate from its Oribi and Oryz fields and 39bn cu feet from its F-A and South Coast Complex fields.

The Ibhubesi gas project off the west coast, which is being developed under a joint venture between PetroSA and Sunbird Energy, would see an initial flow rate of 100m standard cu feet of gas per day by early 2019 via a 400-km pipeline to an onshore gas receiving facility near Ankerlig in the Western Cape.

Shale

Following the shale boom in the US, unconventional exploration and production has increased around the world and has met with some success in South Africa – although it has not been without its challenges. In 2013 the EIA estimated South Africa’s technically recoverable shale gas reserves to be 390 tcf, the eighth-largest reserves in the world.

The Whitehill formation, located in the Karoo Basin and thought to be among the most prolific reserves in the country, holds an estimated 36 tcf of recoverable shale gas. In 2009 and 2010 PASA awarded technical cooperation permits to four international energy companies to conduct geological surveys of potential shale reserves in different areas of the Karoo Basin. Following this, the government placed a 19-month ban on fracking as it conducted environmental impact assessments amid concerns over its potential impact on aquifers and ecosystems. The ban was later lifted and the government announced its intention to proceed with the issuing of licenses once the shale regulations are published.

Energy Services

Rising energy prices, increasingly conducive energy policies and access to incentives have stimulated interest in and the growth of the Energy Services (ES) and Energy Efficiency (EF) market. Energy Services covers both Energy Efficiency (EE) and Embedded Generation (EG) services. There are 4 main groups that play a role in South Africa’s ES market: Consultancy Service Providers;

Technology Suppliers; Energy Service Companies, and Engineering Procurement Contractors. The targeted sectors for EE are industry and mining, power generation, commercial and public sector buildings, residential sector and transport sector.

Industrial energy efficiency programmes are underway and tax incentives and rebates are used to encourage sustainable energy sector development and energy use through efficient practices.
One of the highlights driving ES growth in South Africa, is that embedded generation installations are now seen to increase the value of a commercial building by at least 30% over the cost of installing the system. The market for the installation, operation and maintenance of Rooftop PV is estimated at RMB1 billion over the period 2016-2019.   Efforts are also now underway to develop the solar thermal market in the food and beverage sector.

The South African Regional Energy Agenda

Modern energy services are crucial to human well-being and to a country’s economic development,
Globally over 1.3 billion people are without access to electricity.  More than 95% of these people are either in sub-Saharan African or developing Asia and 84% are in rural areas.

South Africa’s energy diplomacy towards the region is informed by the country’s foreign policy towards the continent. It is more concerned with alleviating energy poverty and access to modern energy services. The country’s approach is developmental and mutually beneficial in its approach, Eskom’s rehabilitation of interconnectivity infrastructure  at the Sothern African Power Pool (SAPP),as well as promoting trade in electricity within the SAPP.

The African Energy Agenda is premised on the commitment by the African governments to pursue a sustainable development of energy generation capacity and infrastructure to support economic development to unearth the continent’s industrial capacity. Priority is given to energy projects that have a regional impact and deepen regional integration, providing capacity to the regional power pools to deliver. The vision for the development of energy in Africa, ‘Horizon 2040’, is articulated in the Programme on Infrastructure Development in Africa (PIDA) with the aim to ensure energy security; universal access; low energy costs; and sustainability.

Conclusion

The Department of Energy’s vision by 2025 is to improve the energy mix by having 30% of clean energy.

This will be achieved through the following strategic objectives:

develop effective legislation, policies and guidelines, encourage investment in the energy sector;
diversify energy mix, improve access and connectivity, provision of quality and affordable energy, promote safe use of energy and transform the energy sector; encourage economic development, promote job creation in the energy sector; and facilitate the implementation of Renewable Energy, Energy Efficiency Technologies and also promote and regulate the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) activities.