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梅拉库·穆鲁阿勒姆:非洲的金砖机遇


在过去的十年里,金砖国家加强了对非洲国家的金融和技术援助。但是,要促成金砖国家对非洲承诺的实现,需要有一套用来保障双方合作关系的系统化机制


文I 梅拉库·穆鲁阿勒姆  埃塞俄比亚外交关系战略研究所培训部主任



● “金砖”是贫穷国家的“避风港”

●  “金砖”不对非洲施加意识形态


“金砖”是贫穷国家的“避风港”

金砖国家是由世界上的新兴经济体巴西、俄罗斯、印度、中国和南非组成。这是一个跨洲性的国际组织,其成员国分别来自亚洲、欧洲、拉丁美洲和非洲。五个成员国共占世界人口的43%,全球GDP的23%,全球陆地面积的30%,全球商品贸易的17%,全球农业生产的45%。

2017年9月3-5日,第九届金砖国家领导人会晤在中国厦门举行,其主题为“深化金砖伙伴关系,开辟更加光明未来”。这次峰会上,五国领导人协商并通过了《厦门宣言》。该宣言指出,金砖国家将致力于建立“更加公正、平等、公平、民主和有代表性的国际政治、经济秩序”。关于非洲,该宣言表示要“打击非法野生动物买卖,促进就业、粮食安全、基础设施发展与工业化。”,支持非盟实施其《2063年议程》。

金砖机制正在挑战现行的世界秩序,大力推动世界新秩序的建立和发展,成为21世纪颇有影响力的国际组织。自2010年起,中国已取代日本成为世界上第二大经济体。仅仅过了一年(2011年),巴西就取代英国成为世界上第六大经济体。印度的经济增长也很可观,有望取代排名在前的其他发达国家。

在未来几十年里,金砖国家将成为仅次于美国的强大经济体。这种全球性转变对于非洲乃至全球发展中国家都有重大影响。金砖国家成为非洲的首要贸易伙伴。研究表明,“非洲之所以能抵御前不久发生的金融危机,很大程度上是因为它与金砖国家结成了伙伴式的经济关系”。金砖国家拥有世界上最大规模的外汇储备,在这种新型的发展模式下,非洲未来的经济增长是与金砖国家联系在一起的。

冷战结束后不久,西方经济体成为世界上的主导力量,它们根据自身的利益和愿望对待其他国家。国际货币基金组织、世界银行和世界贸易组织成为西方主导力量和世界秩序的“发动机”。新兴国家和其他最不发达国家被孤立于全球化进程之外。致力于结构性调整的华盛顿共识反而恶化了世界上发展中国家和最不发达国家的境遇。正是在这种情况下,金砖国家集团应运而生,成为被孤立于全球化进程之外的贫穷国家的避风港。

金砖国家建立了有助于实现其国家利益的集团,也非常关切西方主导的世界秩序的不公正性,试图通过促进和平、安全和发展保持多极化世界秩序。金砖国家赞同通过“金砖+”合作模式促进金砖国家与非金砖国家、新兴市场国家和发展中国家的合作。在金砖国家看来,这种合作和支持有助于“矫正南北发展不平衡现象,促进全球增长”

为显示其与发展中国家的团结,金砖国家强调指出,“发达国家应履行其将国民总收入的0.7%用于官方发展援助的承诺,对发展中国家进一步增加援助、减免债务、改善市场准入和加强技术转让”。“金砖”承诺支持落实《2063年议程》。

2013年3月在南非德班举行的第五届金砖国家峰会奠定了金砖国家和非洲伙伴关系的基础。此次峰会的主题是“金砖国家与非洲:发展、一体化与工业化中的伙伴关系”。在这次峰会上,与会领导人重申支持非洲的一体化进程、可持续增长、工业化、消除贫困、促进境外直接投资、人力资源开发以及基础设施建设。对于有关方面提议的国际货币基金组织改革,这次峰会也很重视,认为“国际货币基金组织应加强其最贫困成员包括撒哈拉以南非洲国家的发言权和代表性”。

金砖国家和非洲国家面临着许多共同挑战,如不公平的世界秩序、全球恐怖主义、人口与毒品走私、极端主义、海盗行为、腐败行为、环境退化、有组织犯罪、人才外流、可持续发展需要、妇女权利和性别平等等问题。与非洲国家一样,各金砖国家也有很大比例的失业人口和贫困人口,他们迫切需要改善生活条件。要应对这些共同的挑战,需要各国做出共同的努力。另一方面,非洲国家还面临着埃博拉病毒、权力和平移交、经济落后和债务负担沉重等特有的挑战。

金砖国家和非洲国家还面临着相似的议程,如联合国安理会改革、加强发展中国家的代表性、南南合作、不平等问题、在经济发展方面受益于全球化等问题。为应对并解决这些共同的问题、挑战和限制,这两类国家结成伙伴关系是至关重要的。

金砖国家支持非洲的和平与稳定,对许多非洲国家的冲突表示关切。金砖国家领导人还通过其平台讨论了索马里、刚果民主共和国、利比亚、中非共和国和南苏丹等国发生的冲突,并就非洲预备部队的目标以及非洲部队和联合国维和部队在维护非洲的和平与安全方面的工作关系提出了建议。

金砖国家《果阿宣言》第17条就非盟的目标强调:

我们欢迎非洲联盟关于非洲发展的远景、愿望、目标和优先事项,并将其载入非洲2063年议程。这是对2030年可持续发展议程的补充。我们重申支持非洲落实有关各项方案,以实现其关于和平与社会经济发展的非洲议程。我们将继续参与有关共同努力,通过支持区域一体化和可持续发展的措施,加强非洲的团结和力量。

从上述内容可以明显看出,金砖国家对非洲做出了许多承诺,表明了共同促进非洲和平、稳定与发展的决心。非洲需要与金砖国家结成伙伴关系,并促进这些承诺的实现。在过去的十年里,金砖国家加强了对非洲国家的金融和技术援助。但是,要促成金砖国家对非洲承诺的实现,需要有一套用来保障双方合作关系的系统化机制。在金砖国家看来,与50多个非洲国家逐一达成协议是很困难的,它们更乐于与代表非洲国家的非盟合作。非盟有其自身的议程,即《2063年议程》,金砖国家也一再表明其有意促进该议程实现的愿望。双方结成了伙伴关系,制定了表明双方合作具体目标和重点领域的路线图。


南非运输集团比勒陀利亚工厂组装车间待组装的中国机车

 

 “金砖”不对非洲施加意识形态

与欧盟和其他国际组织不同,非盟迄今尚未与金砖国家达成伙伴关系协议。此类协议有助于双方合作从事可衡量的活动。这种伙伴关系应建立在互不干涉内部事务、有共同的价值观、平等、信任、相互尊重、相互承担责任、团结和共赢的基础上,而不应是施舍者和受施者的关系。伙伴关系协议有助于加强双方的政治、经济关系,有助于双方实现互惠互利、应对共同挑战、加强民间关系、促进并加强双方的政治对话并在联合国等多边论坛发出共同的声音。

金砖国家和非洲应理解并认识到其共同的立场、差距、潜力、资源、重点任务、挑战和局限,这是双方结成伙伴关系的基础。为此,金砖国家和非洲应建立便于多层级协商和对话的定期论坛。这里所说的多层级协商和对话包括国家领导人级、部长级和专家级的协商和对话。具体说来,该机制包括金砖国家-非洲峰会和非国家参与者论坛,后者包括工商界论坛、民间社团论坛、私人部门论坛和智库论坛等。

双方的伙伴关系致力于和平与稳定、人力资源开发、贸易、投资、工业化、基础设施建设(公路、铁路、通信、港口发展等)、科技、人道主义援助、良好治理、共同研究与交流项目、发展援助、政治及文化合作。

金砖集团并不建立在资本主义或共产主义之类的意识形态基础上,这决定了它不会采用冷战时期的做法,向非洲国家施加某种意识形态。再者,“金砖国家的发展合作并未追随经合组织的指导方针或西方援助标准”。因此,金砖国家向非洲提供了不同于前者的发展合作伙伴和资金来源。国际货币基金组织和西方国家与非洲国家合作附有特定条件,但金砖国家对非洲国家的援助不附加任何政治条件,旨在矫正全球不公正和缩小南北差距。

有些非洲国家希望加入金砖。“金砖+”机制有助于加强这一平台。金砖应确立发展中国家准入标准。鉴于南非已经成为金砖成员,新成员应从东非、西非和北非国家中选择,选择时应综合考虑经济实力、民主治理、在本地区的影响、资源潜力和其他因素。金砖国家采取这种方式有助于加强其与非洲国家的关系。

总之,金砖国家和非洲都会得益于以非盟为依托的伙伴关系。非洲与金砖国家建立伙伴关系有助于其获取发展援助、技术转让、就业机会、技术援助、境外直接投资、人力资源开发、贸易项目多样化、工业化、粮食安全和削减贫困。另一方面,这种伙伴关系对金砖国家也是有利的,这主要体现在:在全球范围内增强其软实力、发展新的贸易伙伴、将其储备资金用于能取得更大收益的项目、增加本国就业机会、在多边论坛取得非洲国家的支持和加强与非洲的友谊。(编辑:常浩)



Benefits and Opportunities of BRICS to Africa


by Melaku Mulualem, Foreign Policy Analysis Department Head in the Ethiopian Foreign Relation Strategic Studies Institute


BRICS
which is an acronym that stands forBrazil, Russia, India, China and
South Africa was established by emergingeconomies of the globe.It has a
transcontinental dimension by comprisingmembers from Asia,Europe,Latin
America and Africa. The five member countriesrepresent 43% of the
world’s population, 23% of global GDP,30% of globalland,17% of global
merchandise trade and 45% of world’s agriculturalproduction.

From
3-5 September 2017, the Ninth BRICSSummit was held in Xiamen,China
under the theme “BRICS: Stronger Partnershipfor Brighter Future”. In
this Summit the leaders of the five countries hadparticipatedand adopted
the Xiamen Declaration.In the declaration it is statedthat BRICS is
working “for a more just,equitable,fair,democratic andrepresentative
international political and economic order”. Regarding Africa,the
Declaration has included its concerns on “illegal wild life trade,
promoteemployment, food security, infrastructure development and
industrialization”.The member states of BRICS have also shown their
support to the implementationof Agenda 2063 of the African Union.

These
new global political actors arebecoming an influential group in the
twenty-first century by challenging thepresent world order and pushing
hard for the creation and development of newworld order. As of 2010
China has become second economy globally, replacingJapan. Just after a
year(2011) Brazil became the six largest global economy,replacing
Britain. India’s growth is also considerable in replacing otherdeveloped
countries.

In the coming decades it is
predicted thatBRICS will have strong economy next to only the United
States of America. Thisglobal shift will have significant impact on
Africa and other developingcountries at large. BRICS has become the
first trading partner to Africa.Studies show that “Africa’s resilience
to the previous financial crisis waslargely due to its economic
relationship with BRICS partners”.BRICS countrieshold the largest
foreign reserve money in the world.Because of the newdevelopment
paradigms, the future fate of Africa’s economic growth is linkedwith
BRICS.

Soon after the end of the Cold
War, theWestern economies have become the dominant power in the world
that detectsother countries according to their interests and wishes.The
InternationalMonitory Fund, the World Bank and the World Trade
Organization have become theengine of Western dominance and the world
order. Emerging powers and otherleast developed countries were isolated
from the benefits of globalization.Rather structural adjustment, the
Washington consensus worsens the situation ofdeveloping and least
developed countries of the world. It was in this situationthat BRICS
came into existence as a safe haven to the unglobalized and
poorcountries of the world.

Even if
BRICS member states haveestablished the new group to fulfil their
national interests, they have alsogreat concerns about the global
injustice in the western dominated world orderand seek to maintain
multi-polar order by promoting peace,security anddevelopment. BRICS is
advocating cooperation with non-BRICS countries, emergingmarket and
developing countries through BRICS Plus cooperation.For BRICS
suchcooperation and support will help in “redressing North-South
development imbalanceand promoting global growth”.

In
showing their solidarity to developingcountries BRICS underlined that “
developed countries should fulfill theircommitment of 0.7 of Gross
National Income for the Official DevelopmentAssistance and make further
efforts in increasing assistance, debt relief,market access and
technology transfer for developing countries”.

The
Fifth Summit of BRICS, in March 2013 inDurban, South Africa, is the
base for the partnership between BRICS and Africa.This Summit was held
under the theme “BRICS and Africa: Partnership forDevelopment,
Integration and Industrialization”. In this Summit leaders
haveunderlined for the support of Africa’s integration process,
sustainable growth,industrialization,poverty eradication,stimulating
foreign directinvestment,human resource development as well
asinfrastructure development. Inthe proposed IMF reform BRICS Summit had
also gave emphasis by saying “IMFshould strengthen the voice and
representation of the poorest members of theIMF,including Sub-Saharan
Africa”.

BRICS and African countries
have a lot ofcommon challenges-such as unfair world order, global
terrorism, human and drugtrafficking, extremism, piracy, corruption,
environmental degradation,organized crimes,brain drain, sustainable
development needs,women’s empowermentand gender equalityproblem and the
like. Like that of African countries allBRICS member countries have a
large proportion of unemployed people and poorpopulation that need
better life. These common challenges need commonefforts.On the other
hand African countries have unique challenges such asEbola Virus,
peaceful transition of power, economic backwardness and debt burden.

Both
of them have also similar agenda suchas the reform of the Security
Council of the United Nations and effectiverepresentation of developing
countries, South-South Cooperation(although someargue that Russia is in
the North, thus South-South phrase doesn’twork),inequality and
benefiting from globalization for economic development. Inorder to
counter and solve their common problems, challenges and
limitations,partnership between the two sides is a paramount importance.

In
supporting peace and security of Africa,BRICS have shown their concern
towards many countries of Africa in whichconflict was rampant. The
conflicts in Somalia, Democratic Republic of Congo,Libya, Central
African Republic, South Sudanetc have been discussed in theBRICS
platforms. The platform has also commended the objective of
AfricanStandby Force, the working relationship between the African force
and theUnited Nations Peace Keeping force in maintaining peace and
security in Africa.

The GOA Declaration of BRICS number 17 havealso given emphasis for Africa Union’s objectives saying

We[BRICS]
welcome the African  Union’s (AU) vision, aspirations, goals
andpriorities for Africa’s development enshrined in Agenda 2063, which
iscomplementary with the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. 
We[BRICS] reaffirm our support for Africa’simplementation of its various
programmes in pursuit of its continental agendafor peace and socio
economic development. We will continue to engage in jointendeavours to
advance Africa's solidarity, unity and strength through supportmeasures
for regional integration and sustainable development.

From
the above mentioned points it is clearthat BRICS has made a lot of
promises to Africa and shown its solidarity tofulfil peace, security and
development interests of Africa.Africa needs thepartnership with BRICS
and the fulfilment of those mentioned promises.Over thelast decade,
BRICS countries have increased financial and technical assistancesto
African countries. However, in order to fulfil all the promises of BRICS
toAfrica, there must be well organized mechanisms that facilitate
workingrelationships between the two sides. For BRICS it is hard to have
agreementswith more than fiftydifferent African countries
independently. Rather it iscommended to work with the African Union as
an organization that incorporatethe vision of the continent at large.
The continental organization has its ownagenda-Agenda 2063.BRICS has
also shown its wishes for the fulfilment of theAgenda repeatedly. One of
the mechanismsis establishment of partnership anddevelopment of roadmap
that show concrete targets and priority areas ofcooperation.

Unlike
the European Union and other groups,so far there is no partnership
agreement between BRICS and the AfricanUnion.Such agreement can help
both sides to work together on measurableactivities. The partnership
should be based on non-interference, shared value,equality, trust,
mutual respect, reciprocal obligation and responsibilities,solidarity,
win-win relation than donor-recipient relation.Partnershipagreement can
reinforce political and economic relations between thetwo sides. It also
helps to fulfil mutual interests, address common challenges,strengthen
people-to-people relations, enhance and strengthen political
dialogue,have common voice in multilateral forums such as in the United
Nations andother forums.

BRICS and
Africa should understand andrecognize their common positions, gaps,
potentials, resources,prioritieschallenges and limitations. This is a
base for their partnership. Forthis purpose BRICS and Africa should
establish periodic forum for consultationand dialogue at different
levels-leaders, ministers and experts level. Themechanisms can be
BRICS-Africa Summit, Non-State Actors Forums such as forum forbusiness
community, forum for Civil Society Organizations, forum for
PrivateSectors and forum for Think Tanks.

The
partnership can focus on peace andsecurity, human resource development,
trade, investment, industrialization,construction of infrastructure
(road, railways, telecommunication, portdevelopment etc), science and
technology, humanitarian assistance, goodgovernance, joint research and
exchange programme, development assistance,political and cultural
cooperation.



BRICS
was not established based on oneideology such as capitalism or
communism. This is a good guarantee for Africanot to be imposed by one
specific ideology as in the case of Cold Warperiod.Moreover the
“development cooperation of BRICS is not following OECDguidelines or
western-standardized aid criteria”. Thus BRICS can be
alternativedevelopment partner and source of finance to Africa. Unlike
IMF and Westerncountries that have strings attached to their cooperation
with Africancountries, BRICS follow no political conditionality
attached to assistancesthat can balance global injustice and narrow the
gap between North and Southdichotomy.

There
are different African countries thatwanted to join BRICS and to be part
of the group. The BRICS Plus mechanism isalso helpful to strengthen the
platform. BRICS should establish a kind ofbarometer that shows which
developing countries can also be part of it in thefuture. Since South
Africa is already part of BRICS from the continent, theadditional
members can be selected from East, West and North Africa based ontheir
strong economy, democratic governance, influence in their
region,resource potential and other factors. Such approach of BRICS can
alsostrengthen the relationship with African countries.

In
conclusion, both BRICS countries andAfrica can benefit from the
establishment of partnership under the umbrella ofthe African Union.
Some of the advantages to Africa from its partnership withBRICS are
acquiring development assistance, technology transfer, job
creation,technical assistance, FDI flow, human resource development,
diversification oftrading items, industrialization, food security and
alleviation of poverty. Onthe other hand BRICS countries can get benefit
from the partnership with Africasuch as increasing their soft power
globally, acquiring more trading partner,can use of their reserve money
to projects that can produces more benefitsthrough interests, job
creation to themselves, get support from Africancountries in
multilateral forums and increase friendship with Africa.