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埃森哲:深度革新的全球电力市场


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尽管近年中国企业对外电力投资明显走低,但这不意味着他们在全球能源舞台上将就此消沉。相反,这或将成为其实现以资本带动输出向以技术为核心竞争力转型的开端

● 全球电网互联程度不断提升

● 全球电源类型多元升级

● 全球电力交易模式持续衍生

能源全球化正在由传统物质资源的交易逐渐升级,一方面,流通标的从煤炭、石油向天然气与电力等多重领域发展,另一方面交易模式以物质交易为基础向跨境投资开发、工程建设、技术合作等多元形式延伸,并延伸出现货交易、期货交易、期权交易等多样结算方法。

随着能源市场全球化全面铺开、能源资源流通加剧,清洁能源作为全球低碳发展的重要议题将进一步成为全球能源市场的核心,预计至2050年全球清洁能源占一次能源比重将达到80%以上。然而,受限于资源地理分布不均等因素,要实现清洁能源资源的全球化流通与共享,以可高度流通的电力为载体、打造全球电力互联体系是实现清洁能源的资源共享的必要手段。未来,电力定将成为全球能源系统发展的核心。

在能源内部资源全球化的同时,全球能源市场也见证了各国资本与技术的扩张,跨境能源投资与建设规模不断提升。在此之中,中国能源企业扮演了不可或缺的角色:作为全球最大跨境能源投资国家之一,2017年中国能源电力及公共事业机构海外投资金额达到625.3亿美元,投资目的地包括欧、美、亚、非、拉各洲,投资领域涉及电力、油气、新能源等多重领域,是能源全球化的重要推进者。

 尽管近年中国企业对外电力投资明显走低,但这绝不意味着中国电力企业在全球能源舞台上的发展将就此消沉。相反,这或将成为中国电力企业实现以资本带动输出向以技术为核心竞争力转型的开端。埃森哲认为,全球电力市场正处于深度转型、快速革新的阶段,把握全球电力市场趋势将更好地帮助中国电力企业从容应对全球电力市场机遇与挑战。

全球电网互联程度不断提升

在电力资源分布不均、需求不一的背景下,无论是地域上还是电量上,供需不匹配成为全球多数国家存在的重大能源问题,而电力网络互联是解决该问题的关键手段。目前,全球互联电网容量约250GW,预计将以近10%的速度保持增长、逐渐形成五大洲内互联电网的格局,即北美、南美、欧洲、非洲以及亚洲互联电网,但各洲内国际互联电网发展程度不一。

欧洲互联电网是目前全球规模最大、机制最成熟、分布密度最高的洲内电网,其110kV电压等级以上电缆总长48.71万千米,共有跨国电缆共423条,年跨境电力交换量高达467TWh,其中洲内电力往来占比93%。复杂的电网分布及电力消纳情况要求欧洲互联电网在具备高密度及高度灵活性的同时保持稳定、高效运营,为确保国家间畅通的电力流通与消纳,欧洲互联电网预计2018年至2030年其将新建201条架空线缆,67条海底电缆以及23条地下电缆,以及15个储能电站等配套设施,总投资额高达1140亿欧元。

 有更多中国电力企业身影出现的,是与发展成熟的欧洲互联电网所不同的东南亚、南亚、非洲等地区,这些地区由于整体经济发展程度相对落后,诸多国家国内电网系统仍存在极大提升空间,尚未形成稳定的国际与洲内电网分布系统。以非洲为例,非洲总体可被分为北部、中部、南部三大地区,其中南、北非发展较快、电力需求大;北部风、光资源充足,太阳能技术可开发容量高达1200GW,占非洲全部太阳能可开发资源42%,南部可再生资源则相对匮乏。在此背景下,预计未来非洲整体将形成中部送电南北、北与欧亚互济的电力往来格局。除南北向跨境互联电网外,中北部东、西向电缆也受西部电力需求缺口和东部水电资源推动存在建设需求。据规划,到2050年非洲地区新增电网负荷将高达460GW,电网总投资规模1.32万亿美元,其中北非、南非、西非约各占1/4,中非与东非合计25%。

无论发达国家或是发展中国家,均存在电网新建、翻新、互联需求,全球电网的整合与互联势不可挡。与此同时,海底电缆及智能电网等新兴概念也正在迈入高速发展轨道,且可再生能源规模越大,对电网传输容量、远距离输电技术及消纳能力的要求也越高,未来全球电网互联仍有极大市场空间等待挖掘。更重要的是,电网与电源相辅相成,电网互联为全球各地打破地理限制、依托资源禀赋发展新能源提供了条件。

全球电源类型多元升级

广义上我们将风能、太阳能、生物质、地热以及其他更为新兴的、非传统能源类型的资源统称为“新能源”,而新能源资源富裕地区通常不是人口密集地区,例如我国西部、非洲撒哈拉沙漠等,电网的互联互通不仅为现有新能源的进一步开发提供了条件,也为更多新能源技术类型的探索形成了支撑。目前全球电力生产中,新能源电力总计占比达到10.1%,发电量总计2581TWh,其中风电占比5.6%占比,光伏占比1.9%,风、光已成为技术最为成熟的可再生能源类型之一;数年来,陆上风电和光伏发电度电成本显著降低,海上风电、光热发电成本预计也将进一步走低。

但这远远不是新能源技术的全貌。一方面,人类对于自然资源的利用仍存在巨大上升空间,不同的能源资源存在多种开发利用方式,以海洋能为例,除波浪能、潮汐能、海流能等广为人知的类型,海水盐度差能、温度产能也可用于发电;地热能同样包括地热蒸汽发电、双循环发电、全流发电等多种技术类型。另一方面,对于生物质等可再生发电燃料的探索也尚在起步阶段,除常见的垃圾焚烧、农林废弃物燃烧等方式外,可再生天然气(生物天然气)也将为生物质燃料发电注入新的活力。

可再生天然气是以固体粪肥、液体粪肥、农作物秸秆、有机废物、能源作物、泥浆等为原料,厌氧发酵产生沼气,经净化提纯后与常规天然气成分、热值等基本一致的绿色低碳清洁可再生燃气。相比多数其他新能源,可再生天然气的生产成本具有显著优势,以英国为例,目前其可再生天然气发电成本约在0.076-0.0995欧元/kWh(约0.086-0.11美元/kWh),其中生物沼气生产和沼气提纯是成本主要组成部分,约各占1/3左右。较低的生产成本和巨大的原料潜力为可再生天然气带来更强竞争力。2018年9月,中国国家能源局综合司下发《关于请上报生物天然气产业化示范储备项目的通知》,提出将建立政策支持和管理体系,完善补贴支持政策,建设一批商业化项目,初步形成生物天然气生态循环经济新业态,预计未来包括我国在内的诸多电力大国都将迎来可再生天然气发电的春天。

 可再生能源发展空间巨大,但未来的市场空间绝不仅限于于风、光乃至生物质发电的规模扩张,新能源技术多元化将是引领全球电力市场转型深化的一大关键驱动。而在电源技术多元化发展的同时,商业模式的革新也应运而生。

全球电力交易模式持续衍生

相对于传统的煤炭、天然气发电等技术,新能源电源类型在发展初期普遍具有成本高的特性。由此,提供上网电价补贴(FIT)成为促进新能源发展的最常见手段。然而随着新技术的不断涌现、市场环境的不断变化,发电侧的激励手段多元发展趋势明显,并由此引起电力体制、市场制度的变动进而导致中下游电力交易体系也越来越复杂。

在发电侧,政府纷纷采取开始探索容量拍卖机制、电力差价合同、税务投资等扶持手段。西欧国家,尤其是英国,是该领域的先驱者。以英国为例,差价合同为其所采用的新能源政策之一,政府通过差价合同明确电力交易执行价格,虽然电力企业依然在市场上交易电力,但当市场价高于执行价格时,其需要向政府支付价差,反之则政府向电力企业支付价差,确保所有的低碳电力企业均能够享受到有效的长期支持。

 越来越多的国家正在开放电力批发乃至零售交易市场并组建集中电力交易市场、探索新型交易机制,随之而来的则是越来越多的不同类型主体加入电力交易活动,包括大型工业企业、金融机构及其他投资型企业等。

日新月异的市场虽然为中国电力企业带来诸多“走出去”机遇,但日趋复杂的市场环境也形成了更大的竞争压力。

未来中国电力企业将面临需求变化、技术革新、制度变更、政策限制、多元竞争等诸多变革所带来的机遇与挑战。为帮助中国电力企业更好地了解全球电力行业动态、于全球舞台展现实力,敬请关注埃森哲后续系列文章。




文  | 陈城 埃森哲大中华区资源事业部董事总经理

编辑 | 杨海霞

设计 | 姜灵枝



英文版:


  ——Major trends in Global Power Sector   


‘Globalization’ has been beyond doubt the key issue of human development since 1990s. Broadly speaking, globalization refers to a social process formed by the flow of elements including goods, capital, and even cultural concepts and consciousness. Among those, the transactional flow of goods and capital is the very initial form. 

The globalization within the energy sector has been rooted in the transnational trade of coal and oil for more than 100 years. After years of accumulated development, globalization of energy has gradually been upgraded by the transaction of traditional resources. For one thing, the assets traded move from coal and oil to more diversified categories, such as natural gas and electricity. For another thing, trading model extends from goods transaction to cross-border investment, construction and technical cooperation, and financial products such as spot, futures and option settlement are derived. As the energy globalization boils the ocean, clean energy will further become the core issue. It is estimated that clean energy will account for more than 80% of global primary energy consumption in 2050. However, constrained by the geographically uneven distribution of resources, it is necessary to establish an interconnected system to facilitate energy circulation. And electricity, as the eventual media of energy flows, is to become the core component of the entire energy sector.

During the globalization of energy sector, the expansion of capital and technology is witnessed with the increasing scale of cross-border energy investment and construction. In the meanwhile, Chinese energy companies are indispensable facilitators – In 2017, Chinese overseas investment in power and utility sector has reached $62.53 billion, most of which flowed to Europe, America and Africa.

Although Chinese companies' outward investment in power has slowed down in recent years, this will not lead to their depressed performance. On the contrary, it may bring on a new era of technology export after years of capital export. Accenture believes that the global energy market is currently going through deep transition and fast innovation, grasping the trends will help to better cope with the upcoming opportunities and challenges.

Increasing Integration of Global Grids

With the uneven distribution of natural resources and the distinct demand of power, many countries are suffering from the power imbalance, no matter geographically or quantitatively, and the connection of global grids becomes an essential measure to address the issue.

At the present, the capacity of global interconnected grid is approximately 250GW, expected to grow at a rate of nearly 10%. Rapidly expanding, it is now forming five major intercontinental grids, namely North America, South America, Pan-Europe, Africa and Asia interconnected grids, with each in various developing phases.

The Pan-European interconnected grid is currently the largest, most mature and most dense one among the world, with the total length of cables above 110kV reaching 487.1 thousand kilometers. Possessing 423 multinational cables, the annual cross-border power exchange volume grows up to 467TWh, while intracontinental volume accounts for 93%. The complexity of grid distribution and power absorption demands the Pan-European interconnected grid to maintain stable and efficient operation while being flexibly and densely distributed. Accordingly, to ensure smooth power circulation and consumption between the countries, it is expected that 201 new overhead cables, 67 submarine cables and 23 underground cables, as well as 15 energy storage power stations and other supporting facilities will be built during 2018-2030, with a total investment of 114 billion euros.

So far, Chinese power companies have participated more in the power markets of Southeast Asia, South Asia, Africa and other immature regions that are different from Europe area. These areas, due to the relatively backward economy, have not yet formed stable intracontinental or multinational grid systems, remaining a great potential for grid improvements.

Africa, for example, can be divided into three major regions: Northern Africa, Central Africa and Southern Africa. Among them, the Southern and Northern part are the ones that are comparatively developed and have larger electricity demands. While Northern Africa possesses sufficient Wind and Solar resources, with the technical potential of Solar energy mounted up to 1200 GW and accounting for 42% of the whole continent’s solar energy potential, Southern Africa is relatively short of renewable resources. In this context, it can be expected that in the future there will be frequent power transmissions from Central Africa to Northern and Southern Africa and power exchanges between Northern Africa and Eurasia. In addition to the North-South cross-border cables, construction of transmission lines from Central Africa to Western and Eastern Africa will also be driven by the power demand gap in Western area and the rich hydropower resources in Eastern area. It is planned that, from now to 2050, the incremental grid capacity in Africa will be as high as 460GW and the total investment will be $1.32 trillion, of which Northern Africa, Southern Africa and Western Africa account for ¼ respectively, and Central Africa and East Africa account for total 25%.

Regardless of the extent of development, there exist demands for new construction, renovation and interconnection of grids in all countries and it is unstoppable that the power grids are interconnecting and integrating globally. Meanwhile, emerging concepts such as submarine cables and smart grids are also expanding rapidly. And the larger the scale of renewables, the higher the requirements for transmission capacity, long-distance transmission technologies and grid absorptive capability are. Therefore, there is still a huge market for global grid integration to be exploited.

But more importantly, the grids and power plants are inseparably connected – the integration of power grids enables countries to better utilize their own resources without the geographical restrictions.

Diversifying Global Electricity Source

In general, Wind, Solar, Biomass, Geothermal and other emerging unconventional energies are called New Energy. The interconnection of power grids not only provides a great opportunity for New Energy to expand, but also supports the exploration of emerging New Energy Technology, as New Energy resources are usually not distributed in densely-populated areas such as the Western area in our nation and the Sahara Dessert in Africa.

Overall, a total 2581 TWh New Energy power generation accounts for 10.1% of global generation, 5.6% of which is Wind energy and 1.9% of which is Solar energy. Clearly, Wind and Solar energy are technically the most mature New Energy sources – the LCOE of Onshore Wind power and Solar power is decreasing dramatically over the years, with the estimation that LCOE of Offshore Wind power and Photothermal power are also coming down.

However, this is not the whole picture of New Energy Technology. On the one hand, there are multiple ways to utilize same kind of resources. For example, besides the well-known types of Ocean Energy including Wave Energy, Tidal Energy, Marine Energy, Osmotic Energy and Ocean Thermal Energy are emerging as alternative ways to generate electricity; as for technology in Geothermal Energy, there also are diverse technologies including Geothermal Steam power generation, binary cycle power generation, total flowing power generation. On the other hand, the development of Biomass is still in the early stage, leaving a great potential to be exploited. Apart from waste incineration and Agriculture waste incineration, Renewable Natural Gases (RNG, also called Biogas) is expected to play an important role in Biomass Energy.

Formed in the anaerobic fermentation of Solid Manure, Liquid Manure, Crop Straw, Organic Waste, Bioenergy Crop, or Mud, RNG is a purified green, low-carbon renewable gas. Compared to other New Energy sources, RNG has a significant advantage in production cost. For instance, in the United Kingdom, the generation cost of RNG is €0.076 – €0.0995/kWh (approximately $0.086 – $0.11/kWh), of which Biogas production and purification are the main components, each accounting for about 1/3 of the total cost. Lower production cost and rich resource make RNG a highly competitive source of energy. In September 2018, the National Energy Administration of China issued an announcement encouraging demonstration projects of RNG and aiming to establish regulatory support and management system, to construct leading commercial projects, and to initially form RNG’ circular economy format. It is estimated that several countries with huge electricity demand including China will embrace the new era of RNG.

In future, there is a huge development potential for Renewable energy, however, the future market is not limited in Wind, Solar and Biomass generation. Diversified technologies in New Energy are the main drivers to lead Global Electricity market to transfer together with business model to reform.

Derivate Global Electricity Trading Mode

Compared with coal and natural gas generation, Renewables are generally of higher cost. As a result, Feed-in-Tariff (FiT) became a vital motivation of the development of Renewables. Yet, along with the emerging new technology and the changing market environment, incentives for the supply-side are becoming increasingly diversified and the reforming power systems are causing more complicated trading system for mainstream and downstream companies.

As for generation companies, governments have begun to explore mechanisms such as capacity auction, Contract for Difference(CfD) and tax investor mechanism. Western European countries, especially UK, are the pioneers in this area. Taking CfD as an example, which is used in UK and defines the exercise price, when the market price exceeds the exercise price, the power companies will need to pay the spread and vice versa, ensuring the long-term and efficient support to the market participants.

More and more countries are opening electricity wholesale and even retail market, building centralized electricity trading market and discovering new type of trading mechanism. Following this trend, more diversified types of entities participates in the electricity trading market, including large industrial enterprises, financial institution and other investment companies.

Although the rapidly changing market brings the opportunities of ‘Going Global’ for Chinese power companies, the increasingly complex environment of market results in more intense competition.

In the future, Chinese power enterprises will stand in front of the opportunities and challenges caused by plenty of changes such as change in demand, technological innovation, institution change, policy constraints and multivariate competition. To help Chinese power companies have better understanding of the dynamics of global power industry and take advantages of their strengths, please stay tuned with Accenture’s following series of articles.



Author | Chen Cheng   Managing Director,  Resources, Accenture Greater China

Design | Jiang Lingzhi